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Trading organizations were asked how their turnover in January 2026 compared with December 2025, excluding any seasonal trading. Data are plotted in the middle of the period of each wave. Nearly a 3rd (31%) of trading businesses reported that their turnover had decreased in January 2026 compared to the previous month.
Nevertheless, the motions are broadly in line with those observed around this time in previous years, with peaks in December followed by small falls in January. The markets with the greatest proportion reporting that turnover decreased in January 2026 were: the lodging and food service activities market (52%, which is a 21 portion point increase from December 2025) the other services industry (45%) the arts, home entertainment and leisure market (40%) Around 16% of trading companies reported that their turnover increased in January 2026, which was a 3 portion point boost compared to December 2025.
For trading organizations with 10 or more staff members, 33% reported that their turnover had actually reduced, which was broadly steady compared to December and January 2025. More than one in 5 (23%) companies reported that their turnover had increased, up 2 percentage points compared with December 2025. Typically, the proportion of businesses reporting that their turnover increased associated to the size of business.
Reviewing UK Economic Outlooks for Market GrowthThe exception to this was the proportion for businesses with 250 or more workers, which was 25%, and 5 portion points lower than December 2025 (30%). Trading organizations were asked how they anticipate their turnover to alter in the coming month. This can then be used to predict how the company's turnover will really alter once that calendar month concludes.
Trends between anticipated turnover and actual turnover have actually broadly moved in the very same direction, the movements for expectations tend to be larger. Care should be taken when analyzing expectations concerns, as the staff members responding on behalf of organizations might not have complete oversight of all of their organization's future expectations.

More than one in five (21%) trading organizations expect their turnover to increase in March 2026. This is a 6 percentage point increase from February 2026 but was broadly stable compared to expectations for March 2025 (22%). The percentage of trading services anticipating an increase in January 2026 was 13%, while the proportion that reported a real boost in turnover in January 2026 was 16%, suggesting a minor pessimism in companies expectations.
The patterns have actually broadly followed each other since the concerns were presented in April 2022. The outcomes for March 2026 follow the pattern from previous years, with the portion of companies anticipating turnover to increase peaking after a decrease in January. Bigger services were more likely to anticipate a boost in turnover in March, with the proportion varying from 20% for companies with 0 to 9 staff members, to 42% for companies with 100 to 249 workers.
For presentational functions, some action options have been eliminated. Information are plotted in the middle of the duration of each wave. Caution ought to be taken when analyzing expectations questions, as the staff members responding on behalf of businesses may not have full oversight of all of their company's future expectations. "." represents data not yet available.
The percentage of trading businesses that expected a reduction in January 2026 was 25%, while the percentage that reported a real decrease in turnover in January 2026 was 31%. The percentage of businesses anticipating turnover to reduce for a particular month ahead of time has stayed substantially lower than the proportion of organizations reporting a real decline because month because April 2022.
However, expectations for turnover to reduce have consistently followed the very same trend, as actual reported turnover decreases throughout this time. Trading companies were asked what challenges, if any, were affecting their turnover in early February 2026. Around 3 in 10 (30%) trading businesses reported that financial unpredictability was having an effect on their turnover, which was broadly stable with early January 2026.
This is broadly steady compared with early January 2026 and 2 portion points down compared with a year back. For trading services with 10 or more staff members, expense of labour was the most often reported obstacle, at 36%. This was broadly steady compared with early January 2026. Services with 10 to 49 workers were more most likely to report expense of labour as an obstacle than companies with 250 or more workers (37%, compared with 20%). One in five (20%) trading services with 10 or more workers showed that they were not presently experiencing any turnover challenges in early February 2026. Additional information on monetary performance, including all response options categorised by market and size band, are offered in our accompanying dataset.
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